US military’s fight against Houthis reaches dangerous impasse

• The Houthis have spent the last year threatening key shipping lanes with missiles and drones.

• The U.S.-led military response failed to effectively prevent rebels from attacking the ships.

• A more aggressive approach is unlikely, which would bring the conflict to a stalemate.

On a blue-sky day last November, a helicopter carrying Houthi gunmen descended on a commercial ship in the Red Sea. The rebels jumped out, took control of the ship and took the crew hostage. They are still in captivity in Yemen.

The spectacular hijacking of the Galaxy Leader, which was filmed, thrust the Houthis into the global spotlight. For the past year, rebels have threatened key Middle East shipping routes with missiles and drones, disrupting maritime trade.

The U.S. military led a Western naval coalition into battle against the Houthis to curb their relentless attacks, but a year of intense fighting has failed to allow the United States to end the threat posed by the rebels — and, for now, they’ve taken a more aggressive approach. does not seem to be the desired course.

“We are not looking for a military solution in Yemen at this point in time,” US special envoy for Yemen Tim Lenderking told Business Insider in a recent interview. He said pursuing such an outcome could bring more devastation to a country shattered by years of war.

“Continuing this approach would expose Yemen to more years of death, destruction and military conflict,” he explained, asserting that “it is essential to consider the impact on Yemeni civilians, on the impact on Yemen’s economy and infrastructure, on the ability to deliver supplies.” in, the possibility for commercial goods to enter Yemen.

This withheld approach to the current Houthi crisis leaves the U.S. military engaged in combat operations without any clear path to victory.

“The threat persists”

The Houthis have launched more than 130 attacks targeting military and civilian vessels in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden in a campaign that Iran-backed rebels say is linked to the war between Israel and Hamas. They struck a number of commercial ships, sinking two and hijacking one (the Galaxy Leader), and killed four sailors.

Merchant shipping transiting the Red Sea normally accounts for up to 15% of global maritime trade, the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency said in a report released earlier this year. However, ongoing Houthi attacks have caused a notable drop in activity along this critical route, forcing ships to make longer and more expensive journeys across Africa.

U.S. warships and aircraft operating in the region are regularly tasked with intercepting Houthi missiles and drones to defend key shipping lanes. The army has also carried out airstrikes against rebels in Yemen, targeting their weapons, launchers and other facilities.

The Pentagon said these efforts were aimed at degrading the Houthis’ capabilities, but the rebels still retain the ability to target ships. This month alone, for example, they have launched attacks on a commercial ship and several U.S. destroyers, although they have yet to hit a warship.

Analysts at the International Institute for Strategic Studies think tank said last month that although Houthi strikes on commercial shipping have declined, the response – which has included US, British and Israeli strikes – over the the past year has been insufficient.

“The threat persists, and there doesn’t seem to be much to mitigate it,” retired Gen. Joseph Votel, who oversaw military operations in the Middle East in the 2010s as commander of US Central Command.

He said U.S. military operations “have been clearly focused on defending ourselves and going after launch sites, production sites, storage sites, maybe some command and control sites – but none of this seems to deter the Houthis.”

Limited options

Some analysts say the United States should consider a more aggressive response to the Houthis, including stepping up efforts to reduce the flow of weapons and capabilities from Iran.

Brian Carter, Middle East portfolio manager at the American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project, wrote in an analysis earlier this month that “allowing the Houthis to prolong their campaign of gradual escalation is a political choice far more dangerous to the United States in the long run than a more decisive military effort would have been.”

The Navy admiral overseeing naval operations in the Middle East said military action alone would not be enough to stop the rebels. “The solution is not going to come from a weapons system,” Vice Admiral George Wikoff, who heads US Naval Forces Central Command, said at a think tank event in August.

However, a diplomatic solution remains unclear. The Houthis have linked their actions to the war in Gaza, but it remains to be seen whether a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas will cause them to stop their attacks. The rebels did not respect the pause in fighting last fall.

With no apparent end in sight, the conflict raises real concerns about its sustainability. Over the past year, the Navy has fired hundreds of munitions in its Middle East operations, costing more than $1.8 billion and emptying the Pentagon of key missiles that are expensive to purchase.

Votel, now a senior national security fellow at the Middle East Institute think tank, said the United States can continue to send warships into combat, but the conflict impacts others priorities of the Pentagon’s national security strategy, such as strengthening the Chinese military. abilities.

There is no indication that US naval activity is about to cease. Officials stress that Washington will continue to take action against the Houthis to stop their attacks. Although some warships left the Middle East earlier this month, other ships have already taken their place.

“We are committed to ensuring freedom of navigation and ensuring that ships can pass through the Red Sea,” said Lenderking, the U.S. envoy.

“Of course, much of the international trade passing through the Red Sea has adapted to alternatives,” he added. “But we believe that the fact that a non-state actor is attacking the international community in this way is not something that we or the international community should accept.”

But for now, it’s unclear what exactly will make this stop.

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